The UK could try to boost its economy through trade with emerging markets if it is unable to preserve the basic outlines of its current relationship with European Union trading partners, according to Agility’s Mid-Year Emerging Markets Review.
And the report, prepared by Transport Intelligence, warns that Brexit could leave key emerging markets exporters, such as South Africa, Kenya, and Turkey, exposed because the value of the pound has fallen and the UK economy is expected to be smaller in the initial aftermath of the UK’s split with the EU.
It also suggests that emerging markets countries that use the UK as a gateway to Ireland and other EU countries might need to find new distribution centres and routes to those markets.
At the same time, UK exports to the EU could face burdensome checks and customs procedures unless the two form a new customs union and the UK hews to EU product standards.
Essa Al-Saleh, chief executive of Agility Global Integrated Logistics, said: “Apart from the political hurdles, the UK’s desire for ‘frictionless’ trade with the EU faces complex technical obstacles – what to do about tariff-rate quotas, rules of origin, product standards and import duties. Anything that alters existing UK-EU arrangements probably means delays and added cost to the movement of goods.”